DOT's Strategy for a Greener U.S. Transportation Future

The latest DOT report to Congress outlines a robust strategy for slashing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector by enhancing public transit, boosting rail and freight efficiencies, advancing aviation and sustainable aviation fuel, investing in electric vehicle infrastructure, and more.

If you've been following the sector for a while, you won’t be surprised by the substance of the report. It’s clear what the sector needs to do to decarbonize; the challenge lies in aligning the will to do it with the right companies and available funds to accelerate advancements and scale technologies.

But are we moving fast enough? Of everything in this report, the one thing that stood out to me is the projected CO2 emissions versus emission reduction goal. So much has already been done to accelerate transportation decarbonization, yet the stark divide and growing gap between the goal and projected emissions continue to weigh heavily on me. With 2025 just around the corner, every day we don’t move faster means that gap becomes more and more entrenched.

Granted, the report does state that the analysis for this projection (graph on the left) may not be a complete picture of the future. Instead, it points to the 2023 Voluntary Supplement to the U.S. Fifth Biennial Report, which it states provides a deeper dive into emissions reductions that may be possible with recent policy wins including BIL and IRA.

In that report, it models a 2023 Policy Baseline showing economy-wide GHG emission reductions of 33 to 41 percent below 2005 levels in 2030 --> putting the U.S. closer to its 50-52 percent reduction target.

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