The 2024 U.S. Election and future of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)

🔍 As the 2024 election approaches, the future of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) comes into focus. Here’s a look at what a potential change in administration could mean:

👥 Harris/Walz Administration: If Kamala Harris and Tim Walz were to secure the Presidency and Vice Presidency, it's unlikely we'd see major new additions to the EV landscape. Their focus would probably remain on implementing existing IRA provisions and continuing the administration of funds and programs by various agencies.

🔄 Potential Rollbacks: Former President Trump has clarified that he aims to overturn Biden-era "EV mandates." Although the U.S. lacks specific EV mandates, Trump’s campaign rhetoric suggests he will go after IRA’s EV subsidies and tax credits, and suggest a potential push to repeal or significantly reduce provisions like Section 30D (EV purchase incentives) and Section 45X (clean energy and battery investments in the U.S.).

🔍 Section 30D: A Trump administration might scrutinize provisions related to "foreign entities of concern," particularly focusing on battery material sourcing and vehicle assembly locations and making the rules more stringent. This contrasts with the Biden Administration’s broader interpretation, which has allowed more flexibility and time for automakers to adjust.

🔋 Section 45X: This section provides tax credits for clean energy manufacturing in the U.S. Trumps is likely to face substantial pushback from Republicans if he goes after it given the significant investments and job creation it drives across red and blue states.

💵 The IRA has spurred over $124 billion in clean energy investments and 100,000 new jobs across more than 300 large-scale projects. Any changes to incentives or their administration could potentially slow clean energy growth and impact new technology development.

📜 Executive Actions: A Trump administration might use executive orders to reinterpret IRA provisions, potentially narrowing eligibility for tax credits and altering guidelines for clean energy investments and manufacturing. Agencies like the Treasury Department could receive new directives to restrict tax credits, particularly around battery components and manufacturing practices.

🏛️ Legislative and Political Challenges: Repealing the IRA entirely would be challenging without Republican control of Congress and the presidency. More likely, Trump might focus on altering IRA implementation through executive orders rather than seeking a full repeal.

🔧 Biden Administration Strategy: Biden’s team is working to allocate IRA funds before any potential changes in Administration. However, Trump’s actions even in this instance could include, but likely met with political or legal pushback:

1. Terminating or altering grants
2. De-obligating or reclaiming funds
3. Redirecting funds to different activities

Startups Revolutionizing Transportation Decarbonization

I’m often asked which startups and early-stage companies are capturing my attention in the transportation decarbonization space. While there are many remarkable companies out there, here are three that have stand out to me—each tackling a different aspect of the ecosystem:

1️⃣ EV Charging: itselectric

Why: Urban EV charging solutions often face challenges with bulkiness and intrusiveness. itselectric's innovative detachable cable model addresses this by providing a sleek, unobtrusive charging solution for city streets. Imagine the impact if every city could deploy hundreds of these chargers!

2️⃣ Aviation: AIR COMPANY

Why: AIR COMPANY is turning CO2 directly from the atmosphere into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) through their AIRMADE™ SAF. This approach not only tackles climate change head-on but also reimagines a climate change causing waste product as a valuable resource.

3️⃣ Maritime: Artemis Technologies Ltd

Why: Artemis Technologies is revolutionizing maritime transport with their EF-24 passenger ferry—an all-electric, hydro-foil vessel that can carry 150 passengers. Their recent expansion to NYC (with a new office) is exciting news, and I can’t wait to see their impact on urban water transport. Explore their innovative design here.

Each of these companies is pushing the boundaries of what's possible in their respective fields. If they succeed, the impact on our world could be transformative. Let’s keep an eye on these trailblazers as they continue to innovate and inspire!

China's EV Revolution: Outpacing the U.S. and What’s Next?

The electric vehicle (EV) landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, and China's leadership is more evident than ever. As the U.S. seems to enter a "lull" in the EV narrative—where political culture engulfs yet another important topic and divides the country—China is advancing full steam ahead on electrification.

What's also interesting, though entirely anecdotal, is that I don't believe the general U.S. population realizes how many citizens in China drive EVs. On-the-ground reports from colleagues and friends who have recently visited indicate that every 2nd to 5th car on the road in certain regions is electric. AND, as this video shows, the number of new EV automotive brands in China is astonishing, with many offering very low-cost and affordable EVs for a wide range of consumers.

The Chinese EV market is reaching a boiling point, and the overflow is coming for the U.S. and European markets, regardless of whether regulators try to stop it.

Here are some interesting stats:

1. In the U.S., EVs made up about 9% of new light-duty vehicle sales in 2023, or approximately 1.4 million vehicles. This was impressive, representing a 52% increase from 2022, when EVs made up 5.9% of the market. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw record highs for EV sales, with both volume and market share reaching new levels.

2. In China, the number of new electric car registrations in 2023 reached 8.1 million, marking a 35% increase compared to 2022. The country is projected by some to surpass a 50% EV sales share by 2025.

So what's going on in China?

📈 Production Powerhouse: China has emerged as the world's largest producer of electric vehicles, leveraging its robust supply chains, government support, and relentless innovation.

🚀 Consumer Adoption: The speed at which Chinese consumers are embracing EVs is truly remarkable. Government incentives, an expansive charging infrastructure, and a growing portfolio of affordable, high-quality EV options have all contributed to rapid adoption rates.

In contrast, the U.S. remains a significant market for EVs but faces challenges in scaling production and boosting adoption rates. From navigating complex regulatory environments to addressing infrastructure gaps, the U.S. has substantial strides to make to match China's pace.

As we look to the future, it's clear that China's approach to electrification could serve as a model for other nations. The rapid rise in both production capabilities and consumer adoption underscores a broader shift towards sustainable transportation that is reshaping the global automotive industry.

🔋🌍 The world is watching—how will the U.S. respond to this electrifying challenge? 🌍🔋

A Clear Example of Effective Sustainability Communication

DHL has delivered one of the best examples of direct sustainability communication I’ve seen! This piece below simplifies the complex topics of "book and claim" and carbon insetting related to sustainable aviation fuel and maritime e-fuels. They’ve made it accessible for everyone to understand. Check it out here.

Why This Matters:

1. Building Awareness: For society to genuinely care about sustainability and climate action, they need to understand what the corporate community is doing. DHL's clear and direct communication is a perfect model for how to engage people effectively.

2. Driving Impact: When individuals understand and care about initiatives in challenging sectors, we have a better chance of meeting our ambitious sustainability goals.

What’s Still Missing:

1. Reaching the Audience: Even with great communication, are we speaking to a broader audience or just a niche community? The effectiveness of storytelling depends on how widely it’s shared and heard.

2. Expanding Our Reach: Effective communication is just one part of the equation. We also need to connect with people on the platforms they use regularly.

This is why inspiring storytelling, like that from The Climate Pledge’s Future Forward documentary series and Emily Chang’s Bloomberg Originals The Circuit, is so impactful. They bring creative, visual, and substantive storytelling to a wide audience, making important topics both enjoyable and digestible.

Let’s continue to push for clear, engaging communication to drive meaningful change! 🌱