Transportation and Climate Tech: Predictions for the Trump Administration Era and What’s Coming
As the incoming Trump administration prepares to take office, I've been reflecting on the future of transportation and the growth of climate tech in the sector. For example, President-Elect Trump has expressed strong views on electric vehicles (EVs), contrasting with the Biden administration's policies. However, I still predict climate tech growth across transportation during the Trump Administration.
After closely watching U.S. DOT Secretary Nominee Duffy's confirmation hearing, I’ve solidified several thoughts on what the next four years might bring for transportation:
Road Vehicles / EVs / Autonomous Vehicles
- Expect a focus on autonomous vehicle (AV) development, which may indirectly still maintain EV industry development/growth as AVs and EVs are built in tandem.
- Duffy highlighted autonomy multiple times, and President-Elect Trump’s relationship with Elon Musk suggests growing federal support for AVs.
- Anticipate federal rulemaking and guidance for AVs to reduce the current patchwork of state laws.
- EVs may face increased road/gas tax burdens to fund infrastructure, despite a decrease in direct federal support such as the federal EV purchase incentive.
- Innovation in autonomy and EV technology will likely continue across consumer vehicles, fleets, and trucking.
Aviation / Space Exploration
- Clear interest in advancing space exploration, drone technology, eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) development, and supersonic flight.
- Duffy signaled support for restoring public confidence in Boeing and improving FAA operations.
- Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) wasn’t a major focus during the hearing, indicating it may not be a top priority.
Rail / High-Speed Rail
- Mixed support for high-speed rail: backing for the Brightline project between LA and Las Vegas but less enthusiasm for California’s rail initiatives overall.
- Amtrak funding is likely to continue, but high-speed rail development may slow compared to recent years in some ways.
Maritime Shipping
- Emphasis on improving port infrastructure, but little focus on climate tech investments like sustainable fuels or decarbonization technologies.
- Expect progress in this area to continue at its current pace, which falls short of global climate goals.
Public Safety
- Strong focus on road safety and pedestrian interactions.
- Potential scrutiny on EV weight compared to gasoline vehicles, which could indirectly support endeavors to deprioritize EV development.
For those interested, you can watch the full 3-hour hearing
